Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation

Over the next century all of Africa is very likely to become dryer and warmer than the global annual mean warming. Due to shift in the rain belt there will be changes in the amount of rainfall, resulting in a decrease of rainfall in northern Sahara and Mediterranean Africa. However, the annual mean rainfall in East Africa is predicted to increase. The average temperature increase is 3-4 degrees Celsius, which is around 1.5 times the global mean. Smaller increases of around 3 degrees Celsius are projected to be found in equatorial and coastal areas while a higher increase of around 4 degrees Celsius will be found in the Western Sahara region.



http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/freshwater-stress-and-scarcity-in-africa-by-2025_4036#

Studies show that Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and variability. With the decrease in precipitation, by the year 2020, around 75 million and 250 million people are going to be exposed to increase water stress. As you can see from the picture to the left, the northern and eastern African countries will feel either water stress or have a scarcity of water by the year 2025. This also means that agriculture production will suffer; the area ideal for agriculture, and the length of growing seasons will decrease. Overall, this will negatively affect malnutrition in Africa and affect food security. To make things worse, towards the end of the 21^st century there is an expected sea-level rise, which will affect low lying coastal areas.

African farmers have started to develop adaption options to cope with future climate variability; however it may not be sufficient for this upcoming climate change. African countries already tackle arid conditions making agriculture difficult. By 2020, crop yield in some countries will have a decrease of as much as 50% and by 2100 crop yield will have a decrease of around 90%. Currently around 25% of Africa’s population experience high water stress with an increase of between 75-250 million and 350-600 million people by the 2020s and 2050s. Even without climate change, several countries in northern Africa will exceed the limits of their usable water resources before 2025.



http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/africa/page/3116.aspx

There are many threats resulting from climate change in Africa. It was a toss-up between the decrease of agricultural production/food yield and increase stress of water supply, however the threat that interests me the most is the overall decrease of water supply. As you can see from the image to the right, more than half of the countries in Africa will feel the increase of stress of water supply in 2025, This was the most interesting threat to me because dehydration kills people faster than starvation. Decrease of water ultimately has the biggest impact because without water agriculture will rapidly dwindle down. It affects so many other aspects other than dehydration. Plus, a portion of Africa struggles with their current water supply. When this problem increase resulting from climate change, it will be the biggest problem Africa faces.